Direct, traditional to level out after Q1: Magna report

Magna Global Forecasting and Analysis projected this week that overall advertising revenue will level out after the first quarter of this year, with direct channels continuing to gain market share.

“Direct forms of media are becoming increasingly sophisticated, and advertisers who were using mass media are finding ways to use direct effectively,” said Brian Wieser, global director of forecasting at Magna. “Within direct, many advertisers who need to be highly targeted find they have a more efficient vehicle using online channels.”

Direct mail is slated to grow 4% year-over-year in 2010, though its 11.6% decrease in 2009 means it won’t catch up to its previous peak levels for several years.

“We’re calling for continued growth of total share going into all forms of direct media,” Wieser added. “Direct mail does OK by virtue of being in a rising tide that lifts all boats in the direct space.”

Online direct, which Magna defines as search, Internet yellow pages and lead generation, is set to grow just more than 4%, according to the report. Despite online’s projected 12% growth for this year, its $15 billion projected total spend will still lag behind direct mail’s $19 billion.

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